[ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]
. 12A BELIEF THAT THERE IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW IN WHICH TO ACTThis belief was present in several of the cases.However, it is unlikelythat there is any direct, causal connection between window thinking andwhether a state initiates preventive action.Certainly, by itself, it is not acritical factor.There are windows opening and closing all of the time, mostof which we are not even aware.This factor is important to the extent that itinteracts with, and reinforces, other factors such as a declining power situ-ation, or the belief that conflict is inevitable.Additionally, it creates a timepressure for decision-makers, which might impact the process of decision-making.In the case of Israel, there were two deadlines that created time pressures,though only one might properly be called a window of opportunity. Thefirst deadline was the date when the reactor would go online, and the secondwas the impending elections, which Begin believed might be won by ShimonPeres.The first of these factors can properly be described as a window ofopportunity a period of time in which there was a strategic advantage overanother state.Interestingly, this window of strategic opportunity did notseem to have any effect on whether or not the strike occurred.The possibilitythat the reactor might go online merely dictated the time frame in which apreventive strike would be effective (and not lead to radioactive fallout); notwhether or not Begin should order the strike.It was the second deadlinethe impending elections that influenced Begin s view of whether or not heshould order the strike.This is interesting and important because the window of opportunity thatseems to have had the greatest effect was not military at all, but political.Peres private note to Begin in May of 1981 made clear that, were he to beelected prime minister, he would never order the strike.13 These two factorscombined to make the window of opportunity a short one elections wereto be held within a month, and the reactor would go on-line soon after that(Begin was convinced).But neither of these factors would have led to thestrike if the other factors (bad faith image, Begin s personal experience withthe Holocaust) had not been present. 156 Why Leaders Choose WarIn the case of British action, window thinking was not present.This is notto suggest that British leaders did not see time as a factor, they did thelonger they waited, the better the chance that the passage of time wouldtransform Nasser s aggression into the status quo.14 As the weeks andmonths passed, the danger described by Eden seemed to be imminent.Thefeeling that something must be done soon, no doubt, had an importanteffect on Eden s decision to go along with the notorious scheme concocted atSevres.However, there was no window, or period, when Britain possesseda significant military or strategic advantage.Window thinking in the United States case was not a unitary idea, butreferred to different things, and changed over the years.At first, the termapplied to the American monopoly on atomic weapons.By 1949, theSoviets had detonated an atomic bomb, and the window changed accord-ingly.After 1949, window thinking had taken the form of leaders speaking ofa danger year, after which time the Soviets would assume completecommand of the world situation (if nothing was done now). 15 Sometimes,leaders and academics used the same language, but asserted that the win-dow of opportunity was the Soviet Union s window.For instance, HansMorgenthau asserted in an article that the United States was already in the danger period, and should act cautiously until it was over.16 Thus, windowthinking in this case actually inspired increased prudence, and not preven-tive action.Even in the United States case, which was dominated by window thinkingand changing capabilities, window thinking alone did not lead to preventivewar thinking. Window thinking by itself only refers to the idea that there isa short period of time in which it is possible to act.By itself, such thinkingdoes not necessarily imply that the state should act
[ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]