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.5percent, although again, these rates may be somewhat too large becauseof how the ships in the New York sample were selected.The latter partof the 1850s, years when immigrant volume was smaller relative to the1846 54 period, again saw lower loss rates.Thus, some connection isapparent between the overall volume of immigration and mortality on aship.During years of high volume, ships were more crowded, a factorthat will be seen to have increased mortality.Besides this relationship, nosecular trend is evident in the figures; loss rates were not much differenton ships arriving at the end of the antebellum period from what they hadbeen in the late 1830s.57 Nor did the country of origin affect the ship s loss52Calculated from information provided in MacDonagh, Pattern, p.81.53MacDonagh, Pattern, pp.162, 170, 213, 219, 304.54McInnis, Population, Table 9.2, pp.380 2.Many more died after arrival in Canada.For all Irish emigrants to North America that year, MacDonagh estimates that 25,000to 30,000 died out of the 215,000 who left.For a description of the situation in 1847written in 1868, see the discussion in Abbott, Immigration, pp.29 33.55MacDonagh, Pattern, p.184.56MacDonagh, Pattern, p.267.The causes of death in each year are discussed later in thechapter.57A regression of the average annual loss rate on the year of arrival yields a positive (0.17)and significant coefficient (t = 3.70) for the year of arrival.If only the period from 1836 The Trip from Europe to the United States 1433.532.521.510.5figure 6.1.Percentage Loss Rates on Ships Arriving in New York, 1820 1860.Source: Data underlying Cohn, Passenger Mortality. rate.However, research has found evidence that loss rates were higheron ships arriving during the winter months, presumably because sailingconditions were worse at that time of year.58The mortality situation was particularly acute in certain years,although not during 1847 because, as noted earlier, the United Statesdid not allow the disease-filled ships to land.High rates are apparent,through 1860 is used, however, the value of the coefficient becomes negative (-0.05) andinsignificant (t =-0.81).More complex econometric analysis for example, includingvariables on crowding and length of voyage encounters data issues.Crowding can onlybe measured imperfectly because the tonnage (the only measure available) of the ship isan imperfect (and perhaps inaccurate) measure of space.The length of the voyage is notknown because the Passenger Lists record only the arrival date, not the departure date.See the further discussion in Cohn, Mortality. 58Cohn, Mortality. 182018221824182618281830183218341836183818401842184418461848185018521854185618581860 144 Mass Migration Under Sailhowever, for ships arriving in New York during 1849, in particular, andanother spike occurs in 1853 and 1854.The high rate during 1849 pre-vailed from the beginning of 1849 through the first quarter of 1850.Dur-ing each of these five quarters, the percentage of all immigrants sailing toNew York City who died was between 2.9 percent and 3.2 percent.Asimilar spike in loss rates during 1849 has been found specifically forIrish immigrants.Glazier estimated that 8.9 percent died that year.59 For1853, the data indicate a particularly large number of deaths during thelast quarter of the year, comparable to what happened on ships bound forCanada.During these three months, 3.5 percent of those going to NewYork died before arrival.60 Mortality was so high that it led to a seriesof editorials in the New York Tribune expressing outrage at the situa-tion.61 The loss rate remained high, at 2.0 percent, in the first quarter of1854, then declined into the summer, but then rose to 2.6 percent in thelast quarter of 1854.For the remainder of the decade, the loss rate fellto much lower levels
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